Post 2022 Armenia: Leaving Behind a Turbulent Year

To say that 2022 was fully kind to Armenia would be somewhat of a misnomer. The landlocked country is still in recovery from events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 war with Azerbaijan. It is also dealing with the repercussions of the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijan border crisis. That being said, neither the country nor its people have ceased their resilience in the face of turbulent times. While it is easy to focus solely on the negative, Armenia has experienced a great deal of positive change along the way, some of which we will address herein.

Armenia-Turkey Relations

The past year in Armenia began with a historic yet controversial move: lifting the embargo on Turkish imports, as well as allowing flights to directly take place between Istanbul and Yerevan, ending what was nearly a 10-year embargo. Armenian authorities justified the move under the pretext that it would further normalize the rocky relationship between Armenian and Turkey in addition to boosting the Armenian economy, as lifting the embargo would allow for more Armenian exported goods to enter the Turkish market. Whether this was a positive move or a negative one is yet to be seen.

An Ongoing Conflict

Despite signing a ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan, Armenia’s conflict with its neighbor is far from settled. The Azerbaijani armed forces violated the ceasefire numerous times, most notably in June of 2022. The violation escalated in September, with an unprecedented attack on Armenia’s sovereign territory which resulted in the death of more than 200 Armenian servicemen in a period of two days.

The culmination of Azeri aggression toward Armenia is the blockade created in December by a group of self-proclaimed Azerbaijani environmentalists who have set up camp at the only lifeline between Armenia and Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), closing the road and effectively putting 120,000 Artsakh citizens under the risk of famine and genocide. Negotiations are ongoing as the road remains blocked and as supplies are running out in Artsakh. The Azerbaijani forces have also cut the gas going into Artsakh multiple times as they control the gas mains.

Nine days into 2023, Artsakhenergo, the Artsakh power grid operator, reported that a section of the transmission line which is located in an Azerbaijani-controlled area was damaged and that the Azeri authorities were not allowing Artsakh engineers to enter the area for restoration purposes. As a result, Artsakh authorities had to announce planned blackouts in order to conserve energy. The internet has also been cut off numerous times. As of the publication of this article, the road remains closed, with only a limited number of citizens being allowed to pass through for urgent surgeries, thanks to the efforts of the Red Cross. Many terminally ill patients cannot receive medical care, and thousands of children are deprived of their right to education as kindergartens and schools are shut down due to lack of supplies.

The Russian Influx and Its Effects on Armenian Economy

Armenia was one of the countries directly affected by the war in Ukraine. The country experienced a sudden influx of Russian citizens who chose Armenia as their haven due to the country’s rather relaxed laws for Russian emigrates. As demand for housing increased, this influx led to a sharp surge in real estate prices, especially in the rental market. Rents in districts such as the center of the capital (Kentron) increased by at least 50% as Armenia struggled with accommodating nearly 400,000 Russian citizens.

Despite the housing crisis, the inflow from Russia has also yielded positive results for the Armenian economy, amounting to a GDP of 14% in contrast to what was initially forecast as 5%.

Positive impact was also felt by specific industries such as tourism, hospitality, nightlife and the IT sector. Barring the latter, all of these sectors were heavily affected by the lockdowns in 2020-2021, so seeing them make a comeback and growing by nearly 30% is a welcome sight to behold.

Armenia in the International Spotlight

Aside from appearing in the international press as a country riddled with war and border issues, Armenia also managed to appear in the spotlight due to major events being held in the country. The first and foremost being the Junior Eurovision Song Contest which was held in the Karen Demirchyan Sports and Concerts Complex. The event caused a significant buzz in the region, attracting thousands of tourists to the country and further boosting the tourism industry.

Following the contest was the Starmus Festival, founded by Armenian-Spanish astrophysicist Garik Israelian. The 6th edition of the famed festival, Starmus brought renowned figures such as Brian May, Serj Tankian, Tigran Hamasyan, James Bagian, Chris Hadfield, Charles Duke, Charles Bolden Junior, Tony Fadell, Brian Greene, and others to Armenia. It was instrumental in painting a more positive picture of Armenia under the international spotlight, especially as a country which is on the verge of unlocking its potential as a big player in the technology and science industries.

Alongside Junior Eurovision and Starmus, Armenia also hosted a number of other prestigious events, both local and international, such as the European Festivals Association’s 70th anniversary Arts Festivals Summit, Tech Week Gyumri, European Boxing Championship, and the Areni Wine Festival.

Leaving Behind 2022

2022 was arguably one of the more challenging years in modern Armenia history. From border issues, internal political conflicts, as well as major incidents such as the Surmalu incident and the opening of an Iranian consulate in Syunik, the country also benefited from a boost in its economy and attracted the international spotlight thanks to numerous events, expos, and conferences. 2023 appears to be as challenging as its predecessor, with the Lachin/Berdzor corridor remaining under blockade being a foremost concern. However, as it has been witnessed in the past, the more challenging the situation, the more resilient Armenia becomes. Regardless of the numerous issues, the country continues to see a steady boost in its economy, is regaining its full momentum as a tourist hotspot, and two weeks into the new year, has already hosted a number of international conferences in its capital, as well as Vanadzor and Gyumri. At the moment, it is hard to paint a clear forecast of what the tides of 2023 will bring Armenia. However, one thing is certain: Armenians both inside and outside of Armenia are ready, willing, and able to tackle any challenges head on.